A Head Start Is Not a Lead

The scoreboard says Phil has the runner-up buried by 38 points before Sunday even starts. The numbers say don't move.

Here's the translation. Pudsey's 48.1 is mostly cashed already — Goff, Chase and Kelce played their holiday games and went home, so there isn't much of that number still to come. Fourth and Long Shots sits on 10.1, sure, but with a 143.8 projection barely touched and the highest-scoring roster in this league, right around 148 points a game across thirteen weeks. That's the whole trick of a Thanksgiving lead: it isn't so much points banked as a head start on a shorter race — and the shorter the race, the more the better team's per-game edge does the work.

A 38-point hole looks enormous over the leftovers. Spread across a full Sunday slate, it's a couple of quarters for the best offense in the league.